Dow Jones Will Go Up

Futures rise, combined with gains in Asia, signal a upward shift for the Dow at the start of the week. With the effects of the auto bailout settling in after last Friday’s rocky session, news that China and Denmark are taking action to add liquidity to the system should contribute to propel the market up, offsetting reports of production cutbacks in tech industries, Toyota’s first-ever losses and the continuing shock waves of the Madoff scandal.

As a plethora of analysts starts to forecast a stocks recovery in 2009 in spite of the continuing grim economic data, the extra liquidity is expected to begin trickling back into the market, with investors slowly reversing the selling trends.

Assessment
Expect a slight rise at the end of a volatile session.

Auto BailOut Plan Insufficient To Keep Dow Up

A stronger than expected auto bailout plan, announced before the opening bell, provided a potent boost to the market on early trading, propelling the Dow into the green for most of the session.

However, hopes that Congress will release the rest of the TARP money before the end of the Bush presidency and Japanese strong action to inject liquidity in the market at the end proved insufficient to keep the Dow from closing down once again.

Assessment
Despite decisive action from governments, the market is still on distrust mode, with investors not taking any chances and cashing in on early gains.

Dow Will Fall

European and Asian losses, as well as the fall of futures indicators, all point to a continuation of the downward trend, with metals and oil companies especially hit by fears of further cuts in demand.

Expected news of a rescue deal that will allow automakers to survive into 2009 and Obama’s vow of tightened regulation in the wake of the welcomed nomination of Mary Shapiro to oversee the SEC will stop the Dow from sliding even further, but will overall be insufficient to offset the flow of negative sentiment flooding the market.

Assessment:

Expect a day of continued losses, with a moderate upturn if a automakers rescue deal is announced before the closing bell.

Dow Jones Will Fall

Trends are set for another day of market losses. With the effects of the Fed’s intervention wearing off and investors beginning to wonder what’s left on Bernake’s arsenal, news of a fresh $850bn stimulus plan will be insufficient to offset the negative clouds hovering over Wall Street.

Adding to the negative mood are news of automakers cutting back on production, SEC’s admission that it failed to act on Madoff’s case despite warnings, losses in Europe and new unemployment figures that, although showing a slowdown on new claims, still register the worst month since 1982.

Assessment
Expect moderate losses at the end of a roller coaster trading.

Britain Will Join The Euro

Trends are moving regarding Britain joining the Euro. British consumers already receive less than a euro per pound when they exchange money at airports and traveling agencies, which marks a tipping point in the long-held assumption of the pound’s superiority. This comes after a year when the pound lost 17% against the euro, following a dramatic lowering of interest rates by the Bank of England.

Assessment
The persistent devaluation of the pound is expected to prompt a shift in public opinion towards backing joining the euro. It is, however, very unlikely that will happen before the next government is well into its mandate. Admission of the UK to the Eurozone in the context of the discussion of the EU’s budget for the period 2014-2020 seems a likely scenario. Considering that London will host the Olympic Games in 2012, this comes like a probable date.

Guantanamo Will Close

Trends are moving regarding the situation in Guantanamo. President-elect Barack Obama had already signaled his intention to close the facility, but questions remained regarding the fate of the prisoners. Portugal’s offer to take in some of the detainees breaks European resistance to assisting the US deal with the problem, and can prelude a concerted European effort to help the incoming administration break the jam.

Assessment:
President-elect Barack Obama will announce Gitmo’s closure early on the mandate, capitalizing on the good-will generated by the measure to push diplomatic initiatives. The remaining detainees will likely be scattered across the globe.

Ireland Will Approve The Lisbon Treaty

Ireland will hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty by the end of October 2009. The EU leaders gave further guarantees regarding the three main areas of concern for Irish voters: abortion, fiscal policy and neutrality. Moreover, Ireland will retain its commissioner, with the EU dropping plans to trim down the size of the Commission.

Assessment:
This concessions, combined with the grim economic outlook facing Ireland, are bound to push Irish voters into a significant shift towards a “Yes” vote, ending the institutional deadlock that has paralyzed the EU.

Carbon Price Will Fall

The EU approved an action plan on climate change that sets ambitious goals for the bloc. The EU now vows to cut CO2 emissions and energy consumption by 20% and achieve a renewable energies ratio of 20%, all by 2020. However, concessions made to secure approval of the deal, especially to Germany and Eastern European countries, put the stated objectives at risk.

Assessment:
Climate change trends are mixed in the Near Future. The way is open for concerted EU and American leadership on next year’s climate change conference in Copenhagen, but overly generous emissions caps for industries in the EU’s plan threaten to derail the fledgeling carbon market.

Markets Will Receive Boost

Financial trends seem brighter in the Near Future. After the Senate rejection of the $14 billion bailout plan, the White House is now considering allowing the automakers to share some of the $700 billion earmarked for the banking system. In Europe, and after initial strong resistance from Germany, the EU approved a package of €200 billion to stimulate the economy.

Assessment:
The converging effects of this two plans should build some confidence in the market, prompting gains across all main indexes on Monday.

US Will Commit To Emissions Cuts

Trends on Climate Change seem to be improving. The US is set to join the global effort to cut carbon emissions, with Sen. Kerry saying that the US will be willing to lead if other countries commit to emission cuts. The auto industry troubles open a window of opportunity for the government to push for the adoption of a green business model in exchange for aid.

Assessment:
The Obama administration will commit to concrete emission cuts in the Near Future, taking advantage of the crisis to promote a medium and long-term transition to a green economy.